A report says the Maple Leafs may not pick Gavin McKenna first overall and the reason behind it is fascinating
One top insider doesn't have the Toronto Maple Leafs taking Gavin McKenna with the first overall pick and here's why that matters.
Despite it being believed that Gavin McKenna is the consensus top prospect in the 2026 NHL Draft, one of the NHL's most prominent insiders sees Toronto passing on the Penn State winger.
Frank Seravalli released a mock draft Wednesday that had the Toronto Maple Leafs selecting Swedish winger Ivar Stenberg over McKenna.
Seravalli's ranking has McKenna dropping beyond the first pick, bypassing San Jose at second overall to the Vancouver Canucks at third
Instead, Seravalli has the Sharks selecting defenseman Keaton Verhoeff second overall, citing the Sharks already strong forward group, and a lackluster defense crop.
Seravalli's report flips the assumption every Leafs fan made the moment Toronto won the lottery
Frank Seravalli, who should be noted is not a prospect watcher but an insider, makes the case for Stenberg over McKenna, and the notable disappointment Leafs fans who celebrated the draft lottery win for the prospect of adding Gavin McKenna.
Leafs Nation may initially be disappointed in not drafting the flashier McKenna, but recent playoff disappointments should remind Leafs fans that you need more than elite offensive skill to advance in the playoffs.
Stenberg will bring the skill and a whole lot more as a thicker, more physical replacement for Mitch Marner. - Frank Seravalli
Stenberg will bring the skill and a whole lot more as a thicker, more physical replacement for Mitch Marner. - Frank Seravalli
Beyond the McKenna tier, there is a largely interchangeable ranking of players between 2-6, with Stenberg being the most projected #2 behind McKenna.
After McKenna & Stenberg, defense leads the way with Keaton Verhoeff, Chase Reid, & Carson Carels all having been slotted in various top-three rankings, along with center Caleb Malhotra being a riser in that category.
Theoretically, if the Toronto Maple Leafs need defense, drafting Gavin McKenna could very well let the Leafs focus on adding defenders in free agency rather than balancing needs at defense and forward.
The Sharks taking a defenseman, especially a right-handed one, wouldn't be a major shock.
Them trading down to three and taking Verhoeff, or in my opinion more likelier to be Chase Reid, but Stenberg is indeed hard to pass up on, and why he's very much an option at first overall.
Seravalli: Stenberg fits the Maple Leafs need better than McKenna and Chayka may already see what scouts have been missing
Frank Seravalli argues that Ivar Stenberg is the greater fit for the Toronto Maple Leafs, and admittedly there is some proponents of Stenberg over McKenna.
Having collected the opinions of a few scouts this season, the majority have had Gavin McKenna as their top prospect.
Many independent or non-NHL scouts I've spoken to have been a bit more liberal in touting Stenberg as the better player, still it's a less popular opinion among scouts in league roles.
Stenberg comes off a phenomenal SHL season with 11 goals and 33 points in 43 games. Only Daniel Sedin has a higher PPG (0.84) than Stenberg (0.77).
One sticking point to point concerns at McKenna game is his lack of physical aggressiveness, and that his game was challenged at times in the NCAA.
For a 'win-now' team like Toronto, McKenna might not provide NHL level physicality right away, and the Leafs want to see a more intense team.
A scout friend once said that scouting really can be as simple as "'ind the best player', but it's a matter of subjectiveness in the Leafs scouting room if their best player is McKenna or not. Many NHL draft boards end up looking very different than what it is a public consensus.
The Toronto Maple Leafs could very well have other plans beyond the consensus, with nothing ever set in stone until the team steps up onto the draft podium and makes their pick.
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