Leafs fans want Gavin McKenna first overall but the Ivar Stenberg argument is the one nobody wants to have
Photo credit: Nick Wosika-Imagn Images; Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images
While it's presumed the Maple Leafs are going to select Gavin McKenna, let's see if there's a world where Ivar Stenberg goes to Toronto first overall.
With only an 8.5% chance to win the first overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, the Toronto Maple Leafs somehow pulled off a stunning victory and secured themselves the chance to draft a franchise cornerstone; even if Mats Sundin was as stoic as ever when it was announced.
A former first overall pick himself, the newest member of the Maple Leafs front office now gets a chance to work with John Chayka to figure out who they should bring in as the next superstar in blue and white.
It's pretty obvious that the team would select Penn State forward Gavin McKenna first overall and considering the team is lacking that elite playmaker — he makes the most sense to plop alongside Auston Matthews.
Though there are couple of red flags that we should be careful about despite McKenna's incredible potential.
Gavin McKenna's going first overall but his past raises some legitimate questions
Firstly, we all heard the story of McKenna getting into an altercation that led to assault charges being issues but quickly dropped though his name is still attached to the situation — not a good look.
Though it's cleared up, adding that to a list of controversial people (Chayka) and suddenly you may have a lot more internal problems than you'd anticipate and risking a potential bust or tense locker room may be their downfall.
Will the Toronto media zone in and focus on his public life? Will he quickly resent media appearances and then start ignoring them? How will fans perceive him? It's still a bit risky.
Secondly, while he was great at Penn State; it wasn't his best. From a guy who averaged nearly 2 points per game in the WHL and just came off a 120+ point season you would expect more production.
To be fair to McKenna, he was playing against guys who were upwards of six years his senior and he still put up 51 points in 35 games. He was not bad by any standard but a bit below what a generational player would bring.
With no consensus first overall pick considering that Ivar Stenberg really raised his stock, there is a world where he could go first overall. But is that really worth it?
Stenberg is the safer pick, and may be part of creating a Swedish powerhouse in Toronto
Honestly, taking a look at what Stenberg did it's impressive. He scored the most points in the SHL as an 18-year old since Daniel Sedin (42) and Henrik Sedin (34) in 1998-99 and also helped Team Sweden win gold at the World Juniors.
Keep in mind that unlike McKenna playing with college kids, Stenberg was playing against former NHL players and grown adults in Sweden. The SHL is no joke, and putting up 33 points in 43 games is stellar work for a teenager.
Plus he's already considered a more complete player overall and has a knack for being a solid defensive player as well. Prospect analyst Sam Cosentino believes that McKenna's raw offensive talent is better but Stenberg is ready to compete:
I think Stenberg is a more complete player right now. I think his compete level is a little higher.
We also need to factor in just what Toronto is building. Mats Sundin is Senior Advisor and a legend both in Toronto and Sweden, and William Nylander is a superstar who is beloved in both locations as well.
Imagine if you will a world where Sundin and Chayka focus the team around their Swedish superstars (much like Vancouver) and then move on from Auston Matthews — bringing in a massive haul that may include another Swede as well.
It makes too much sense for the Maple Leafs with their three-headed monster: Sundin, Nylander, and Stenberg.
Past. Present. Future.
Also read on Hockey Patrol :
John Chayka called out the Maple Leafs defense core on day one and his plan to fix it is already clear
John Chayka called out the Maple Leafs defense core on day one and his plan to fix it is already clear
Previously on Hockey Patrol
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