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Mitch Marner's Shocking Projected Value in Free Agency Reported by Nick Kypreos

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Chris Gerics
November 18, 2024  (7:33 PM)
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Mitch Marner is expected to command a high salary this upcoming free agency and Maple Leafs analyst Nick Kypreos thinks it could be near record-breaking.

Since being drafted, Toronto is the only home Mitch Marner has known but coming to the end of this season there lies a choice.

Does he take a bit of a discount to stay and win? Or does he leave Toronto to take his talents elsewhere and prove he can lead on his own?

It's tough to say, and there are so many variables and factors that go into a decision like that, it's hard to gauge whether or not Marner has the team or personal intentions in mind.

If you were to use the eye test, Marner is playing both for himself and his team, stepping up in Auston Matthews' absence and proving he can be a very valuable leader.

Real Kyper and Bourne's Heated Mitch Marner Debate

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Two people who have been impressed with Marner are Justin Bourne and Nick Kypreos of the Real Kyper and Bourne Podcast, and they took to recently discussing his next deal on their latest show.

Safe to say, things got a bit heated.

Kypreos was an outlier amongst his co-hosts Justin Bourne and Sam McKee who were in awe of Kypreos' claim that Marner is elite-level value.

Kypreos stated:

"Why only a little [raise] though? I don't understand he'll get the raise he's entitled to at fair market value. He's at $10.9 [million] for six years. I think he could be worth close to a Leon Draisaitl. $14M. I'm telling you, if you stuck him out in the market as an unrestricted free agent, I think someone is coming to him with an offer of $13-14M."

After Bourne and McKee laughed at Kypreos' expense, Bourne mentioned paying Marner $12M for his next deal if he was the Maple Leafs. Kypreos snapped back at Bourne a bit:

"Wait, why $12M? He's making $11M now! Why isn't he worth more than $12M?!"

Bourne retorted just as harshly:

"Cause he can't produce anything at 5-on-5 on his own, he can't produce in the big games. Don't you follow this team?!"

Kypreos then took the time to call out Bourne and other fans and analysts who create false narratives around players like Marner:

"Oh my gosh. These are narratives that are following him from you and others who are saying 'Get rid of him! He's not worth it."

Bourne fought back:

"I'm not saying that! I'm saying he's not worth being the second-highest paid player in the NHL."

Kypreos then calmed down a bit and relayed some stats about Marner's play over the years and compared McDavid/Drasaitl to Marner/Matthews.

"Over the last 5 years, only McDavid, and one other guy, he's the third highest producing guy in the last few years, don't tell me he's not up there.

Listen McDavid is the #1 guy in Edmonton ok, Edmonton thought they were getting Draisaitl for $13M, he said no, it's $14M. You know what happens? They gave him $14M. The Leafs are in a very similar situation."

Mitch Marner: Is He Worth It?

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Now this is a tough one to narrow down. Marner has produced like an elite-level player and deserves to be paid as such...if we were talking regular-season success.

Marner's question mark has always been being unable to perform in the playoffs or in crunch time. His 2 points in 5 career Games is a very telling figure.

Throughout the entirety of the playoffs, Marner has 50 points in 57 games and while it's a respectable number, it's nowhere near what Toronto needs from him.

So with all that being said let's look at some optics.

663 points for his career including this season, with a plus/minus of +114. 200 career goals from a playmaker, including back-to-back 30-goal seasons.

One series win. Zero Stanley Cups. Four head coaches.

It's hard to argue that Marner can't produce for you when it comes to the regular season and he will for sure lead your team into the playoffs. It's a matter of whether he'll show up or not.

But he's so incredibly vital to Toronto's success each season that gives them the best shot it's also hard to think about him walking away.

If I were Toronto, I would look to the heavens for a sign at this point. It's not going to get easier, and if he continues to produce at the rate he's at, there's no telling how much he'll get offered.

When Toronto wins more than one round and makes a deep playoff push, it's a good indicator they will try to keep Marner (if they haven't extended an offer already) but if they don't?

It'll be up to the Core Three to take care of business from here on out.

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How much will Mitch Marner's contract be in terms of AAV?

$12M31943.8 %
$13M24333.4 %
$14M12917.7 %
$15M+375.1 %
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