The Maple Leafs can still finish in the bottom-three and guarantee Boston never sees their pick
Photo credit: Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Surprisingly the Toronto Maple Leafs could slide into the bottom-three if all goes well and the Rangers and Flames get hot at just the perfect opportunity.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have one shining beacon of hope for this season, and that's a bottom-five finish in the NHL standings to give them the best possible chance of keeping their 2026 first-round pick and not give it up to the Boston Bruins.
There's a lot of luck involved although if the Maple Leafs continue to play as bad as they have been, they will finish with 78 points. A dismal finish to say the least, but it could be their saving grace.
That is, if some other teams get hot.
Why the results from the Rangers and Flames games are the key to the bottom-three
By looking at the NHL standings right now, the Rangers and Flames both sit at 75 points and have two games remaining. If both teams were able to somehow pull off a couple of victories to close out the year, they would both leapfrog the Maple Leafs and tie with 79 points.
Also, the Maple Leafs finishing fourth would give them some of the best odds of keeping their pick, and a top-three chance increases heavily if they somehow manage 29th place.
New York has Florida and Tampa Bay left on the docket and if they can take the game from the Panthers, and perhaps even get a point vs. Tampa, they would surpass Toronto even though they have 78 points each due to more regulation wins.
Calgary has the unenviable task of having to play both Colorado and Los Angeles and although that first game is going to be a struggle; the Avs could be sitting their best in order to prepare for the postseason; and Los Angeles is frankly a wild-card.
They could show up, or they could completely fall flat. No one knows.
All Toronto hopes is that both the Flames and Rangers want to finish the year off strong and give them a fighting chance to fall even further in the standings.
The draft lottery math that turns a bottom-three finish into a massive strategic win
If Toronto were to end up being leapfrogged, they will end up third and given a 11.5% chance of finding themselves with the first overall pick and a chance to draft Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg, Chase Reid, or Keaton Verhoeff.
If they end up fourth, that drops to 9.5%. Looking at previous years only two teams have made a huge jump with the Rangers in 2020 who moved from 14th to 1st, then the Islanders who jumped from 10th to 1st last year.
They need to make sure they lose against Dallas and Ottawa and make sure that the Flames and Rangers put in a strong effort. There's no wiggle room anymore and it's make or break for the Maple Leafs.
The chance to increase their odds at getting a franchise player is too important to risk losing for the sake of pride, and a bottom-three finish is where the team needs to strive for.
It may look ugly on the ice but if it brings someone who turns things around then who really cares?
It's time for Toronto to accept their fate and realize that the bigger picture is what is to be looked at. Lose these games and pray that the hockey gods finally bless you with some good luck.
Just don't waste it this time.
Also read on Hockey Patrol :
A Maple Leafs seventh round pick makes his NHL debut on the same night Joe Bowen calls his final game
A Maple Leafs seventh round pick makes his NHL debut on the same night Joe Bowen calls his final game
Previously on Hockey Patrol
| POLL | ||
AVRIL 13|886 ANSWERS The Maple Leafs can still finish in the bottom-three and guarantee Boston never sees their pick Do you think the Maple Leafs will be able to finish in the bottom-three of the NHL standings? | ||
| Yes | 318 | 35.9 % |
| No | 568 | 64.1 % |
| List of polls | ||