The race to trade up for Ivar Stenberg at second overall is proof the Maple Leafs are taking Gavin McKenna
Photo credit: Nick Wosika-Imagn Images
The Toronto Maple Leafs likely taking Gavin McKenna first overall could lead to the San Jose Sharks moving the second overall pick, with four teams already looking.
With Gavin McKenna the projected top pick in this year's draft, the San Jose Sharks, currently with the second pick, could move down if McKenna goes first, according to David Pagnotta of the Fourth Period.
Pagnotta reports that the Vancouver Canucks, New York Rangers, Calgary Flames and Winnipeg Jets, all teams with a top-ten pick, could present a trade scenario for the Sharks to move out of second overall.
I think San Jose is serious about wanting to listen, excuse me, willing to listen on that second-overall. There's runway there where San Jose is going to be a pretty attractive team for clubs looking to move up to get basically, again, argument's sake, Stenberg at #2.
San Jose is willing to move the second overall pick and four teams are already circling because they believe McKenna is gone at first overall
Now, Pagnotta speaks hypothetically on Gavin McKenna being the top pick to Toronto, but it's widely expected. The Leafs are not at the stage where they've decided on the top pick with a month left to go.
Pagnotta points to a need for defense, and San Jose being secured at forward with a youth core of Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith, Michael Misa, & William Eklund at the helm.
Ivar Stenberg would add a projected top line winger to the Sharks roster, but deep in forward depth and lacking in defense, there's a clear logic in trading down.
After McKenna and Stenberg, the projected top two picks, the draft becomes more defense heavy with Chase Reid, Keaton Verhoeff, Carson Carels, Alberts Smits, & Daxon Rudolph as options between 3-10.
San Jose could move down one spot to third, allowing Vancouver to take Stenberg as a potential replacement for fellow Swedish winger Elias Pettersson, someone who could be on the move, while San Jose takes one of the top defenders.
The Canucks face a real possibility of moving Elias Pettersson this summer. Acquiring Stenberg at second overall would give Vancouver a long-term replacement for Pettersson before the trade even happens. That's why the Canucks are the most motivated team in this trade conversation, and why San Jose extracting Vancouver's package may be the most likely outcome.
Why would the Sharks trade down rather than take a defenseman second? There are multiple teams that would value Stenberg highly, and be willing to pay more than their first round pick to move up, with the potential of three defenders going within the top-six, San Jose could extract major value.
The Leafs never publicly confirmed McKenna but the draft market is already pricing in that decision and that pressure could force Chayka's hand
The Toronto Maple Leafs could control the rest of the NHL draft below them, but it could put the Leafs in a corner if the goal is to deal the pick if San Jose acts first.
If new GM John Chayka wants to make a move that involves first overall, San Jose moving down could take a top contender out, and reluctant to move up further having already paid enough of a price to move up to second.
Chayka is still working to sort out plans for his new team, including satisfying the wants of captain Auston Matthews, who has put Toronto on notice that he wants to see real changes, that could see the top pick floated.
The league is reacting as if Gavin McKenna will be taken with the top pick, and the current view is that it's likely to be the case, and it could cause some chaos afterwards as teams try to trade up.
If Toronto is settled selecting first overall, it could create a battle to acquire the second pick. If the Leafs want to make a deal, they have the upper hand vs a team like San Jose.
This draft has the Leafs holding the cards, and what they do with the top pick could change multiple teams plans quickly however Chayka goes forward.
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