Are the Maple Leafs Actually Better Without Auston Matthews? The Shocking Reasons Behind the Debate

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Chris Gerics
November 10, 2024 (1:07 PM)

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The Toronto Maple Leafs are historically better without Auston Matthews but it's been evident recently that they can dominate regardless. Is it time to make changes?

Auston Matthews landed on the IR (retroactive to Nov. 3) and has missed three games against big division rivals Boston, Detroit, and Montreal. Toronto has responded quite strongly, going 3-0-0 while outscoring teams 11-2 in that span:

It's been a full team effort, as everybody from Mitch Marner to David Kampf has pitched in to make sure Toronto's dominance can continue without their captain. They're dangerous at both ends of the ice, and the goaltending duo of Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz have been great even if Woll's struggled a bit.

So when Auston Matthews inevitably returns, potentially as early as Tuesday against the Ottawa Senators, a question remains: Do the Toronto Maple Leafs need Auston Matthews?

Yes. Obviously. It's not hard to figure out that Toronto needs Matthews not only as the face of the franchise but as captain and the league's best goal scorer. But perhaps Toronto doesn't need to rely so much on him and can use him elsewhere.

Watching Mitch Marner play without Matthews has been a revelation, to say the least. He's controlling the offense more, he's playing incredible defense (proving those critics wrong) and has been riding an 8-game point streak and leads the team with 20.

Marner seems to have a bit more patience without Matthews and doesn't look like he's trying to force an extra pass or not taking shots in favor of letting Matthews score. For example, his goal against Montreal on Saturday:

Marner took the puck into the zone and passed it to David Kampf, who patiently waited for Marner to reposition himself for the easy goal. If Matthews were in Kampf's position, Marner would have more than likely passed it, cycled around, and waited to make more passes.

Mitch Marner can score goals, folks. He scored 96 with the London Knights, and has nearly 200 NHL goals; let the man shoot more. He's got a lightning-quick release and tends to have a heavier shot than some anticipate, allowing for more chances off rebounds or pucks sneaking through.

It's clear looking at NHL EDGE statistics that Marner shoots most often in the slot and high danger areas; why do the Leafs let him run the wing instead of trying to crash the net with Marner and Knies.

Max Domi is a great playmaker, and can consistently get to the net, so just overload the netminder and get Marner shooting in those high-danger areas. Toronto should look to maybe spreading out their Core Four a little more.

Hear me out; Auston Matthews is the third-line center.

Now it seems ludicrous but they need a desperate injection of life on their bottom six, and having Matthews with Nicholas Robertson and Bobby McMann would benefit both wingers substantially, and give Matthews the defensive opportunities that Craig Berube wants to give him.

Both Robertson and McMann are also shooters, much like Matthews. But let's not forget, Matthews has had over 25 assists every season since his debut, including back-to-back 45+ assist seasons from 2021-2023.

Letting Matthews pass a bit more isn't a bad thing, and getting both McMann and Robertson on a hot streak can only lead to benefits, and could pay off huge come playoff time.

It would also mess with every other team in the league. How do you properly adjust your lineup to accompany Matthews on the third line? Do you move your stars down or do you hope your lesser players can prevent the inevitable damage? It would change the landscape of how teams adjust, as most teams tend to frontload their stars and create a unique power dynamic in the NHL.

So the question remains: Will Toronto make changes once Auston Matthews returns? It's hard to say. Craig Berube needs to put his superstar and captain back in, but can't risk messing with a good thing right now, though it's hard to take him off the top line for sure.

If Toronto wants to keep Matthews at the forefront, he can head the first line; no issues. But he just shouldn't do it with Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies.