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Insider Leaks: Real Reason Mitch Marner Hasn't Signed Yet - Leafs Fans Won't be Happy

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Chris Gerics
February 9, 2025  (2:50 PM)
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David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period has revealed that the Maple Leafs may not be willing to pay Mitch Marner what he's worth regardless of his success. Are they making a mistake?

The biggest question this offseason for the Maple Leafs is whether or not Mitch Marner will re-sign or if he'll take a big deal elsewhere.

The team reportedly refuses to pay Marner more than Auston Matthews, and with Marner's agent Darren Ferris playing hardball -- it's going to be a really hard negotiation.

Marner, 27, is in the prime of his career. With Toronto this season, he has 16 goals, 55 assists & 71 points in 54 games.

On pace for the best numbers of his career, and ready to cash in on a deal: Will Toronto stand pat and wait, or will they take a risk?

Report: Maple Leafs Hesitant To Commit To Mitch Marner

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In an article written for The Fourth Period, analyst Dave Pagnotta broke down as to why the Maple Leafs might be able to re-sign Marner and how it'll affect the next few weeks:

With $31.32 million in cap space next season, the Leafs have plenty of room to get Marner, Tavares and rising star Matthew Knies, who can become a restricted free agent, locked up.

Whether they want to give Marner more than $13 million per year is unclear.

Marner loves Toronto, make no mistake about that. He wants to be a Maple Leaf for life. But he also wants to get paid.

If Rantanen's in the $14 million AAV neighbourhood, Marner isn't far behind. Especially if Rantanen signs with the Hurricanes and Marner is the top free agent entering July 1.

Pagnotta then spoke about how Marner's contract will determine how the Leafs approach their trade plans:

If the Leafs feel comfortable that they can get Marner locked up, be it before the deadline or ahead of July 1, they may proceed with caution.

If there is even the slightest amount of doubt, though, now might be the time to go for it as their window may start to close if they lose a 100-point calibre player for nothing.

This is not an envious position for any management team. There is a lot of risk, no matter the direction Treliving takes.

The next 27 days could paint a clearer picture of the franchise's immediate and future success, and a lot may ride on Marner's ultimate decision.

That's a lot of information to take in -- so let's break it down.

Toronto Goes All-In

It's no secret Toronto wants to add a second or third line center, shore up their defense and give themselves a playoff producer without breaking the bank.

Easier said than done, and the pressure to make a deal hinges on Marner's desire to re-sign. That pesky internal salary cap is the culprit, and the reason why Mikko Rantanen was traded from Colorado.

But this is the season of all seasons.

Toronto has not had such good goaltending in 20 years, they have improved significantly on defense (though could use a bit of extra help), and their window to win is as open as ever given the open-ended nature of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

If Toronto can go all-in and get what they need regardless of cost, and prove to Marner he can win with them, then it'll make that stretch between late May and July 1 a lot easier to ride through (and hope he re-signs)

He could then feasibly take a $13M contract, and if $250,000 is the dealbreaker -- that's more on Marner's agent than the player himself.

Bringing in a Brock Nelson, or Brayden Schenn would give Toronto the best chance at winning -- and re-signing Marner.

Toronto Plays It Safe

There's nothing wrong with Toronto waiting on Marner and gauging his ability to compromise when it comes to his next deal. If they feel like a solid playoff run and the prospects of the future are enticing enough; they won't do many big trades.

Why make a big move when you know Marner might re-sign? Mortgaging the future isn't going to be a savvy move if Toronto fails in the playoffs and misses out on a prospect's potential.

Plus if Toronto stands pat -- what message does that send to Marner? If the team is unwilling to make the necessary moves to improve the team, it shows Marner the team isn't committed to winning it all, and he may leave for other places (much like Ryan O'Reilly did).

Another first round loss isn't going to do anything but make life miserable for Brad Treliving, and while playing it safe and feel confident that Marner will re-sign is good on paper...

What happens when Marner skips town and Toronto is left with absolutely nothing?

But what do YOU think? Should Toronto be aggressive regardless of Marner's contract, or wait and see if they can re-sign him? Let us know!

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Insider Leaks: Real Reason Mitch Marner Hasn't Signed Yet - Leafs Fans Won't be Happy

Should the Maple Leafs pay Mitch Marner more than Auston Matthews in order to re-sign him?

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